Updated deals to review
Each pass risk is checked against Akta news and Hacker News since the pass date. Status first, conviction second.
| Company | Pass risks | Newest proof point | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Modal Passed Aug 4, 2025 by Maya Chen “round was basically full and priced rich, couldn't get allocation” | Round dynamics:Partially de-risked | Akta news · Oct 22, 2026 · 15 mo after the pass Why AI Compute Comes in Rectangles — Erik Bernhardsson, Modal CEO — Latent Space | 72 De-risking 0.50, thesis fit 0.90, traction 1.00 |
| Clay Passed Jun 2, 2025 by Jordan Lee “messy go-to-market, no repeatable channel. revisit if distribution clicks” | No distribution yet:Partially de-risked | Akta news · Oct 20, 2026 · 17 mo after the pass demandDrive Named Clay's Inaugural "Rising Star" Partner Following Rapid GTM Tech Integration | 60 De-risking 0.50, thesis fit 0.50, traction 1.00 |
| Resend Passed Sep 15, 2025 by Daniel Okafor “pre-product really, beta plus a waitlist, email API space is crowded” | No product yet:Partially de-riskedMarket too small:Partner call | Hacker News · Oct 20, 2026 · 13 mo after the pass I checked 8,062 Show HN domains: 223 send with Resend and have no MX record | 60 De-risking 0.25, thesis fit 0.90, traction 1.00 |