Updated deals to review
Each pass risk is checked against Akta news and Hacker News since the pass date. Status first, conviction second.
| Company | Pass risks | Newest proof point | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anysphere Passed Jun 14, 2025 by Elena Rossi “no revenue model yet, unclear how a code editor makes real money” | Too early on revenue:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Braintrust Passed Oct 2, 2025 by Sam Ortiz “no real revenue yet, unclear who ends up paying for evals” | Too early on revenue:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Column Passed May 21, 2025 by Sam Ortiz “chartered-bank infra niche, market might be too small” | Market too small:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Fireworks AI Passed Oct 6, 2025 by Sam Ortiz “no enterprise customers yet, inference is commoditizing” | No big customers:No coverageMarket too small:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Hebbia Passed May 27, 2025 by Jordan Lee “too early on revenue, under $1M ARR and spending fast” | Too early on revenue:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Highnote Passed Aug 19, 2025 by Maya Chen “go-to-market unproven, card issuing is a slog to sell” | No distribution yet:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Method Financial Passed Jun 18, 2025 by Jordan Lee “team gap, strong founder but no senior engineering leadership” | Team gap:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Orum Passed Aug 27, 2025 by Maya Chen “distribution unclear, no obvious channel into banks” | No distribution yet:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Pylon Passed Oct 10, 2025 by Daniel Okafor “pre-product when we met, just onboarding first design partners” | No product yet:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Replicate Passed Jun 24, 2025 by Maya Chen “no obvious distribution, mostly bottoms-up hobby use” | No distribution yet:No coverageNo big customers:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Together AI Passed Aug 11, 2025 by Priya Shah “burning cash hard, revenue durability unproven” | Too early on revenue:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Unit Passed May 30, 2025 by Jordan Lee “valuation too high for the stage, hard to see the markup” | Round dynamics:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Weaviate Passed Jul 16, 2025 by Elena Rossi “all engineers, thin on go-to-market and sales” | Team gap:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Fly.io Passed Sep 20, 2025 by Sam Ortiz “no enterprise anchor, infra margins worry us” | No big customers:No coverageToo early on revenue:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 21 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.70, traction 0.00 |
| Mintlify Passed Jun 30, 2025 by Elena Rossi “docs tooling market feels too small to be venture scale” | Market too small:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 21 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.70, traction 0.00 |
| Neon Passed Sep 9, 2025 by Daniel Okafor “no enterprise logos, serverless postgres is a knife fight” | No big customers:No coverageMarket too small:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 21 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.70, traction 0.00 |
| Railway Passed Aug 15, 2025 by Priya Shah “distribution unproven, devtools monetization is hard” | No distribution yet:No coverageToo early on revenue:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 21 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.70, traction 0.00 |
| Turso Passed Jul 30, 2025 by Elena Rossi “pre-1.0, basically a demo, no production users” | No product yet:No coverageNo big customers:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 21 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.70, traction 0.00 |
| Warp Passed Jun 5, 2025 by Jordan Lee “consumer-leaning team, no enterprise sales motion or hire” | No distribution yet:No coverageTeam gap:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 21 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.70, traction 0.00 |
| Pinecone Passed Sep 29, 2025 by Daniel Okafor “valuation too high, round oversubscribed, no room for us” | Round dynamics:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 18 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.60, traction 0.00 |
| Supabase Passed May 25, 2025 by Maya Chen “round full and priced beyond us, couldn't get in” | Round dynamics:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 12 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.40, traction 0.00 |