Updated deals to review
Each pass risk is checked against Akta news and Hacker News since the pass date. Status first, conviction second.
| Company | Pass risks | Newest proof point | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Decagon Passed May 19, 2025 by Priya Shah “no enterprise logos yet, mostly SMB pilots. come back when a real enterprise signs” | No big customers:De-risked | Akta news · Oct 14, 2026 · 17 mo after the pass ServiceNow Denies Reports of Takeover Interest in Decagon | 97 De-risking 1.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 1.00 |
| Lithic Passed Jun 11, 2025 by Daniel Okafor “no enterprise anchor customer when we met” | No big customers:De-risked | Akta news · Sep 24, 2026 · 15 mo after the pass Lightspark Brings Stablecoin Settlement to Visa Cards via Lithic | 97 De-risking 1.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 1.00 |
| Baseten Passed Jul 11, 2025 by Sam Ortiz “no enterprise customers, all hobbyist and indie usage so far” | No big customers:De-risked | Akta news · Oct 14, 2026 · 15 mo after the pass Baseten Adds Runway’s Gen-4.5 and Aleph 2.0 to Dedicated Inference | 85 De-risking 1.00, thesis fit 0.50, traction 1.00 |
| Increase Passed Jul 8, 2025 by Priya Shah “too early on revenue, just a handful of design partners” | Too early on revenue:Partially de-riskedNo big customers:De-risked | Akta news · Sep 25, 2026 · 15 mo after the pass CORRECTING and REPLACING Tekion, Increase, and Core Bank Partner to Bring Industry-First Embedded Banking to Automotive Retail | 85 De-risking 0.75, thesis fit 0.90, traction 1.00 |
| Moov Passed Sep 3, 2025 by Elena Rossi “still pre-product, roadmap only, no live payments volume” | No product yet:De-riskedToo early on revenue:Partially de-risked | Akta news · Oct 20, 2026 · 14 mo after the pass Lenders Cooperative Integrates Moov to Embed Modern Payments Across Its Unified Lending Platform | 85 De-risking 0.75, thesis fit 0.90, traction 1.00 |
| Sardine Passed Jul 22, 2025 by Priya Shah “no marquee enterprise logos, fraud is a crowded space” | No big customers:De-riskedMarket too small:Partner call | Akta news · Jun 28, 2026 · 11 mo after the pass Modern Treasury and Sardine partner on fraud detection | The Paypers | 72 De-risking 0.50, thesis fit 0.90, traction 1.00 |