Updated deals to review
Each pass risk is checked against Akta news and Hacker News since the pass date. Status first, conviction second.
| Company | Pass risks | Newest proof point | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Decagon Passed May 19, 2025 by Priya Shah “no enterprise logos yet, mostly SMB pilots. come back when a real enterprise signs” | No big customers:De-risked | Akta news · Oct 14, 2026 · 17 mo after the pass ServiceNow Denies Reports of Takeover Interest in Decagon | 97 De-risking 1.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 1.00 |
| Lithic Passed Jun 11, 2025 by Daniel Okafor “no enterprise anchor customer when we met” | No big customers:De-risked | Akta news · Sep 24, 2026 · 15 mo after the pass Lightspark Brings Stablecoin Settlement to Visa Cards via Lithic | 97 De-risking 1.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 1.00 |
| Baseten Passed Jul 11, 2025 by Sam Ortiz “no enterprise customers, all hobbyist and indie usage so far” | No big customers:De-risked | Akta news · Oct 14, 2026 · 15 mo after the pass Baseten Adds Runway’s Gen-4.5 and Aleph 2.0 to Dedicated Inference | 85 De-risking 1.00, thesis fit 0.50, traction 1.00 |
| Increase Passed Jul 8, 2025 by Priya Shah “too early on revenue, just a handful of design partners” | Too early on revenue:Partially de-riskedNo big customers:De-risked | Akta news · Sep 25, 2026 · 15 mo after the pass CORRECTING and REPLACING Tekion, Increase, and Core Bank Partner to Bring Industry-First Embedded Banking to Automotive Retail | 85 De-risking 0.75, thesis fit 0.90, traction 1.00 |
| Moov Passed Sep 3, 2025 by Elena Rossi “still pre-product, roadmap only, no live payments volume” | No product yet:De-riskedToo early on revenue:Partially de-risked | Akta news · Oct 20, 2026 · 14 mo after the pass Lenders Cooperative Integrates Moov to Embed Modern Payments Across Its Unified Lending Platform | 85 De-risking 0.75, thesis fit 0.90, traction 1.00 |
| Modal Passed Aug 4, 2025 by Maya Chen “round was basically full and priced rich, couldn't get allocation” | Round dynamics:Partially de-risked | Akta news · Oct 22, 2026 · 15 mo after the pass Why AI Compute Comes in Rectangles — Erik Bernhardsson, Modal CEO — Latent Space | 72 De-risking 0.50, thesis fit 0.90, traction 1.00 |
| Sardine Passed Jul 22, 2025 by Priya Shah “no marquee enterprise logos, fraud is a crowded space” | No big customers:De-riskedMarket too small:Partner call | Akta news · Jun 28, 2026 · 11 mo after the pass Modern Treasury and Sardine partner on fraud detection | The Paypers | 72 De-risking 0.50, thesis fit 0.90, traction 1.00 |
| Clay Passed Jun 2, 2025 by Jordan Lee “messy go-to-market, no repeatable channel. revisit if distribution clicks” | No distribution yet:Partially de-risked | Akta news · Oct 20, 2026 · 17 mo after the pass demandDrive Named Clay's Inaugural "Rising Star" Partner Following Rapid GTM Tech Integration | 60 De-risking 0.50, thesis fit 0.50, traction 1.00 |
| Resend Passed Sep 15, 2025 by Daniel Okafor “pre-product really, beta plus a waitlist, email API space is crowded” | No product yet:Partially de-riskedMarket too small:Partner call | Hacker News · Oct 20, 2026 · 13 mo after the pass I checked 8,062 Show HN domains: 223 send with Resend and have no MX record | 60 De-risking 0.25, thesis fit 0.90, traction 1.00 |
| Anysphere Passed Jun 14, 2025 by Elena Rossi “no revenue model yet, unclear how a code editor makes real money” | Too early on revenue:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Braintrust Passed Oct 2, 2025 by Sam Ortiz “no real revenue yet, unclear who ends up paying for evals” | Too early on revenue:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Column Passed May 21, 2025 by Sam Ortiz “chartered-bank infra niche, market might be too small” | Market too small:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Fireworks AI Passed Oct 6, 2025 by Sam Ortiz “no enterprise customers yet, inference is commoditizing” | No big customers:No coverageMarket too small:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Hebbia Passed May 27, 2025 by Jordan Lee “too early on revenue, under $1M ARR and spending fast” | Too early on revenue:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Highnote Passed Aug 19, 2025 by Maya Chen “go-to-market unproven, card issuing is a slog to sell” | No distribution yet:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Method Financial Passed Jun 18, 2025 by Jordan Lee “team gap, strong founder but no senior engineering leadership” | Team gap:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Orum Passed Aug 27, 2025 by Maya Chen “distribution unclear, no obvious channel into banks” | No distribution yet:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Pylon Passed Oct 10, 2025 by Daniel Okafor “pre-product when we met, just onboarding first design partners” | No product yet:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Replicate Passed Jun 24, 2025 by Maya Chen “no obvious distribution, mostly bottoms-up hobby use” | No distribution yet:No coverageNo big customers:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Together AI Passed Aug 11, 2025 by Priya Shah “burning cash hard, revenue durability unproven” | Too early on revenue:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Unit Passed May 30, 2025 by Jordan Lee “valuation too high for the stage, hard to see the markup” | Round dynamics:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Weaviate Passed Jul 16, 2025 by Elena Rossi “all engineers, thin on go-to-market and sales” | Team gap:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 27 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.90, traction 0.00 |
| Fly.io Passed Sep 20, 2025 by Sam Ortiz “no enterprise anchor, infra margins worry us” | No big customers:No coverageToo early on revenue:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 21 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.70, traction 0.00 |
| Mintlify Passed Jun 30, 2025 by Elena Rossi “docs tooling market feels too small to be venture scale” | Market too small:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 21 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.70, traction 0.00 |
| Neon Passed Sep 9, 2025 by Daniel Okafor “no enterprise logos, serverless postgres is a knife fight” | No big customers:No coverageMarket too small:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 21 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.70, traction 0.00 |
| Railway Passed Aug 15, 2025 by Priya Shah “distribution unproven, devtools monetization is hard” | No distribution yet:No coverageToo early on revenue:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 21 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.70, traction 0.00 |
| Turso Passed Jul 30, 2025 by Elena Rossi “pre-1.0, basically a demo, no production users” | No product yet:No coverageNo big customers:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 21 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.70, traction 0.00 |
| Warp Passed Jun 5, 2025 by Jordan Lee “consumer-leaning team, no enterprise sales motion or hire” | No distribution yet:No coverageTeam gap:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 21 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.70, traction 0.00 |
| Pinecone Passed Sep 29, 2025 by Daniel Okafor “valuation too high, round oversubscribed, no room for us” | Round dynamics:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 18 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.60, traction 0.00 |
| Supabase Passed May 25, 2025 by Maya Chen “round full and priced beyond us, couldn't get in” | Round dynamics:No coverage | No coverage: no public news since the pass. | 12 De-risking 0.00, thesis fit 0.40, traction 0.00 |